Bank of England warns of rising risk of no-deal Brexit

Bank of England warns of rising risk of no-deal Brexit

The Bank of England warning on rising risk of no-deal Brexit comes a day after a warning by economists about the risk of recession in the second half of 2019. The change of PM has been a side show which will have a negative effect on prospects of a deal with the EU prior to the October 31 deadline. We should now prepare for a re-run of the same headlines leading up to the earlier March 29 deadline with even less prospects of any negotiations let alone resolution in the short period to the new deadline. Most financial institutions have had to plan for a hard Brexit and many started implementing these plans around the March deadline. Interestingly, many institutional clients still have faith in the prospect of some sort of agreement and are resisting forced moves to the EU subsidiaries. The new PM and will find it a huge challenge to even engage with the EU in the summer holidays let alone start serious discussions. The best outcome that may be possible will be to agree a revised timetable for an orderly exit including the inevitable extension of the Implementation Period, if the Withdrawal deal can ever be passed by the Parliament. Prospects of this happening remain low. Hence, we move full circle to the risk of a hard Brexit – whether by accident or design!

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Ayaz Siddiqui, 11th July 2019

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